Tesla Killers: Rise of the E-Machines
No one saw Tesla coming. A Silicon Valley startup putting electric motors into a handful of Lotus sports cars was about as niche as automaking gets.
Khodrocar - Then Elon Musk took over. Scarily smart and with the chutzpah to simultaneously bet billions on two industries with staggeringly high costs of entry—space and autos—Musk saw an opportunity. In the same year his other company, SpaceX, launched its first rocket, Tesla launched the Model S, a car that changed the way the world thought about electric vehicles.
Six years on, Tesla is in trouble. The much-anticipated rollout of the smaller, supposedly more affordable Model 3 is a mess. Musk's team can't figure out how to build the Model 3 in the numbers required to generate badly needed revenue, and early-production cars coming off the line are riddled with quality defects requiring expensive rework. Elon's "building cars is hard" epiphany is coming at a critical stage in the game.
Tesla is burning cash, and alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street. Analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank, have predicted Tesla will need an injection of up to $3 billion this year alone. In April Goldman Sachs cut its six-month share price target to $195, a 36 percent decline in Tesla's valuation. S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm, reported the value of shorted Tesla stock—a bet the share price will decline—jumped by 28 percent in March to $10.7 billion.
But the Model 3 fiasco is not why Tesla is in trouble. Production problems can be fixed. The existential crisis facing the company is this: Tesla is about to be overwhelmed by electric vehicles from mainstream automakers. A swarm of Tesla killers is coming.
a close up of a car going down the highway© Motor Trend Staff
For now, Tesla's product offering is unique. But if you take the public statements of mainstream automakers at face value, there will be more than 50 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in production by 2025—all with range and performance equivalent to comparable Tesla models. Volkswagen alone plans to be selling a million BEVs a year by then. Even if Tesla survives the Model 3 meltdown, the math is inescapable. One David. Many Goliaths.
Here is the list of entrants Tesla must overcome to stay alive.
JAGUAR
Jaguar's I-Pace is the first harbinger of doom. The attractive, perfectly pitched crossover is the first genuine rival to Tesla's Model S and Model X from a mainstream automaker, offering similar range and performance to P75D versions of both at a lower price, with the entry-level model starting at just under $70,000. Plus, next to the bare Bauhaus aesthetic of the Tesla cabin, the Jaguar has an interior that for many consumers looks like it belongs in a high-tech luxury car.
JLR's investment in a BEV platform isn't simply about a single product. The company is already working on an all-electric flagship based on the I-Pace's hardware. Positioned as an XJ sedan replacement, this full-size luxury BEV is expected in 2019 or 2020. Powered by the same permanent-magnet motors mounted front and rear as in the I-Pace, it will boast 394 hp, a smooth ride, and a quiet, roomy, luxurious interior.
BMW
One of the debates for automakers contemplating building Tesla fighters is whether to develop a bespoke BEV platform or create what is called a "convergence" platform, capable of accommodating internal combustion, plug-in hybrid, or battery-electric powertrains, potentially saving money.
In 2009, BMW bet the energy density of battery cells would double by 2020—allowing more compact battery packs to deliver competitive BEV range and performance on a convergence platform. "Battery energy density has already doubled," says Klaus Fr lich, BMW's research and development chief. "From 2020 onward, I can get a battery that delivers more than 300 miles of range and good performance in vehicles based on our existing FWD and RWD architectures."
BMW is spending heavily on developing its own electric motors and power electronics systems. Now in the fifth generation, Fr lich claims BMW's e-motors deliver the performance and efficiency of permanent-magnet motors but without the need for expensive rare earth elements, the vast majority of which come from China or hard-to-reach or politically unstable areas. The current lineup includes e-motors rated at 80, 120, and 148 hp
Fr lich says BMW will launch more than 10 BEVs by 2025, including a larger, roomier i3 and an all-new coupelike sedan called i4. Also coming: the iNext, a BEV technology flagship designed to showcase BMW autonomous driving capability.
The i4, previewed by the i Vision Dynamics concept revealed at the 2017 Frankfurt show, will be a real BMW. The most powerful version is rumored to have one front- and two rear-mounted motors delivering a total of more than 440 hp, plus a 0-60 acceleration time of about 4.0 seconds. "We have worked 10 years on this," Fr lich says. "Small, very sporty rear-wheel-drive cars were our biggest challenge, but we found the solution a year ago. We had the target, but now I can deliver. In 2021, we will be ready."
DAIMLER
Daimler strategy and product planning chief Wilko Stark says the company will launch 10 BEVs by 2022, covering all segments from city car to SUV. Most will launch under the new Mercedes-EQ brand, a strategy consistent with branding performance Mercedes models Mercedes-AMG and ultra-luxury models Mercedes-Maybach.
First to appear will be the Mercedes-EQ C compact SUV in 2019, followed by the Mercedes-EQ A compact hatchback in 2020 and the seven-seat Mercedes-EQ B in 2022. These will ride on a Daimler convergence platform based on the front-drive MFA2 architecture that underpins the current A-Class and B-Class models. The top-of-the-line EQ C will feature two 201-hp e-motors and an 80-kW-hr battery pack. The EQ A and B models, which will be built on a modified version of Daimler's MFA2 platform, get a single 201-hp e-motor, a 60-kW-hr battery pack, and a 300-mile range.
Daimler will roll out its bespoke BEV platform by the end of 2020. Code-named EVA2, it is highly modular, able to accommodate 60, 80, and 110-kW-hr battery packs and 188, 241, and 335-hp e-motors, and it should deliver driving ranges of 250, 300, and 360 miles. The first products on EVA2 will be the EQ S (a large sedan) and the EQ E (a midsize sedan), with SUV variants to follow.
"The new platform will give us the ability to cover all segments," Stark says. "And it will be a real Mercedes, the absolute benchmark."
AUDI
Audi's Q5-sized e-tron SUV is scheduled to arrive in U.S. dealerships next year. In 2020 it will be joined by the e-tron Sportback (another SUV but with a fastback roofline) and the e-tron GT, a swoopy four-door hatchback that resembles Audi's Q7. All feature e-motors mounted front and rear, a 95-kW-hr battery pack, and a 250-mile range.
The e-trons roll on a heavily modified version of the MLB architecture that underpins current Audis from A4 up, as well as Porsche's Cayenne and Bentley's Bentayga. But Audi CTO Peter Mertens confirms Audi and Porsche engineers are working on an all-new bespoke BEV architecture known as PPE. This platform, which will be ready in the early 2020s, replaces the convergence platform used for the e-trons, as well as Porsche's J1 platform.
Why the change? "You give up too much potential if you try to build a platform that does everything," Mertens says. "It's too expensive, too heavy, and it has proportions that do not fit either BEVs or vehicles with internal combustion and hybrid powertrains."
Audi is the engineering lead on two of the PPE platforms, while Porsche will have responsibility for one. All three variants will incorporate technology modules developed for J1. The first BEV Audi scheduled to come off PPE will be an A6-sized car. For Porsche, PPE enables it to build a high-floor electric SUV, not possible with the low-slung J1, which has been optimized for sporty on-road dynamics.
VOLVO
Geely-owned Volvo has reinvented its Polestar performance brand as one dedicated to BEVs, though its first car will be a plug-in hybrid. Polestar's first pure electric vehicle, the Polestar 2, is aimed squarely at Tesla's Model 3 and will make its public debut the second half of 2019, with production ramping up in 2020.
Built on a convergence platform based on the CMA architecture that underpins the new XC40, the Polestar 2 will look a lot like the Volvo 40.2 concept shown in 2016, and it features a glamorous interior that makes the Model 3's cabin look cheap and dull. Volvo sources say top-end Polestar 2 models will offer similar range and performance to Model 3—up to 300 miles between charges and 0-60 mph in about 6.0 seconds. Prices will start from about $45,000.
In 2022 the Polestar 2 will be joined by the Polestar 3, a rakish SUV built on a bespoke BEV version of SPA2 platform that will underpin the next generation of 60- and 90-series Volvo models. The Polestar 3 is big, about the size of an Audi Q7 but much roomier inside. Top versions will be all-wheel drive, with two motors at the rear and one driving the front wheels, and have a bigger battery pack than the largest currently offered by Tesla.
Source: Motor Trend
Six years on, Tesla is in trouble. The much-anticipated rollout of the smaller, supposedly more affordable Model 3 is a mess. Musk's team can't figure out how to build the Model 3 in the numbers required to generate badly needed revenue, and early-production cars coming off the line are riddled with quality defects requiring expensive rework. Elon's "building cars is hard" epiphany is coming at a critical stage in the game.
Tesla is burning cash, and alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street. Analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank, have predicted Tesla will need an injection of up to $3 billion this year alone. In April Goldman Sachs cut its six-month share price target to $195, a 36 percent decline in Tesla's valuation. S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm, reported the value of shorted Tesla stock—a bet the share price will decline—jumped by 28 percent in March to $10.7 billion.
But the Model 3 fiasco is not why Tesla is in trouble. Production problems can be fixed. The existential crisis facing the company is this: Tesla is about to be overwhelmed by electric vehicles from mainstream automakers. A swarm of Tesla killers is coming.
a close up of a car going down the highway© Motor Trend Staff
For now, Tesla's product offering is unique. But if you take the public statements of mainstream automakers at face value, there will be more than 50 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in production by 2025—all with range and performance equivalent to comparable Tesla models. Volkswagen alone plans to be selling a million BEVs a year by then. Even if Tesla survives the Model 3 meltdown, the math is inescapable. One David. Many Goliaths.
Here is the list of entrants Tesla must overcome to stay alive.
JAGUAR
Jaguar's I-Pace is the first harbinger of doom. The attractive, perfectly pitched crossover is the first genuine rival to Tesla's Model S and Model X from a mainstream automaker, offering similar range and performance to P75D versions of both at a lower price, with the entry-level model starting at just under $70,000. Plus, next to the bare Bauhaus aesthetic of the Tesla cabin, the Jaguar has an interior that for many consumers looks like it belongs in a high-tech luxury car.
JLR's investment in a BEV platform isn't simply about a single product. The company is already working on an all-electric flagship based on the I-Pace's hardware. Positioned as an XJ sedan replacement, this full-size luxury BEV is expected in 2019 or 2020. Powered by the same permanent-magnet motors mounted front and rear as in the I-Pace, it will boast 394 hp, a smooth ride, and a quiet, roomy, luxurious interior.
BMW
One of the debates for automakers contemplating building Tesla fighters is whether to develop a bespoke BEV platform or create what is called a "convergence" platform, capable of accommodating internal combustion, plug-in hybrid, or battery-electric powertrains, potentially saving money.
In 2009, BMW bet the energy density of battery cells would double by 2020—allowing more compact battery packs to deliver competitive BEV range and performance on a convergence platform. "Battery energy density has already doubled," says Klaus Fr lich, BMW's research and development chief. "From 2020 onward, I can get a battery that delivers more than 300 miles of range and good performance in vehicles based on our existing FWD and RWD architectures."
BMW is spending heavily on developing its own electric motors and power electronics systems. Now in the fifth generation, Fr lich claims BMW's e-motors deliver the performance and efficiency of permanent-magnet motors but without the need for expensive rare earth elements, the vast majority of which come from China or hard-to-reach or politically unstable areas. The current lineup includes e-motors rated at 80, 120, and 148 hp
Fr lich says BMW will launch more than 10 BEVs by 2025, including a larger, roomier i3 and an all-new coupelike sedan called i4. Also coming: the iNext, a BEV technology flagship designed to showcase BMW autonomous driving capability.
The i4, previewed by the i Vision Dynamics concept revealed at the 2017 Frankfurt show, will be a real BMW. The most powerful version is rumored to have one front- and two rear-mounted motors delivering a total of more than 440 hp, plus a 0-60 acceleration time of about 4.0 seconds. "We have worked 10 years on this," Fr lich says. "Small, very sporty rear-wheel-drive cars were our biggest challenge, but we found the solution a year ago. We had the target, but now I can deliver. In 2021, we will be ready."
DAIMLER
Daimler strategy and product planning chief Wilko Stark says the company will launch 10 BEVs by 2022, covering all segments from city car to SUV. Most will launch under the new Mercedes-EQ brand, a strategy consistent with branding performance Mercedes models Mercedes-AMG and ultra-luxury models Mercedes-Maybach.
First to appear will be the Mercedes-EQ C compact SUV in 2019, followed by the Mercedes-EQ A compact hatchback in 2020 and the seven-seat Mercedes-EQ B in 2022. These will ride on a Daimler convergence platform based on the front-drive MFA2 architecture that underpins the current A-Class and B-Class models. The top-of-the-line EQ C will feature two 201-hp e-motors and an 80-kW-hr battery pack. The EQ A and B models, which will be built on a modified version of Daimler's MFA2 platform, get a single 201-hp e-motor, a 60-kW-hr battery pack, and a 300-mile range.
Daimler will roll out its bespoke BEV platform by the end of 2020. Code-named EVA2, it is highly modular, able to accommodate 60, 80, and 110-kW-hr battery packs and 188, 241, and 335-hp e-motors, and it should deliver driving ranges of 250, 300, and 360 miles. The first products on EVA2 will be the EQ S (a large sedan) and the EQ E (a midsize sedan), with SUV variants to follow.
"The new platform will give us the ability to cover all segments," Stark says. "And it will be a real Mercedes, the absolute benchmark."
AUDI
Audi's Q5-sized e-tron SUV is scheduled to arrive in U.S. dealerships next year. In 2020 it will be joined by the e-tron Sportback (another SUV but with a fastback roofline) and the e-tron GT, a swoopy four-door hatchback that resembles Audi's Q7. All feature e-motors mounted front and rear, a 95-kW-hr battery pack, and a 250-mile range.
The e-trons roll on a heavily modified version of the MLB architecture that underpins current Audis from A4 up, as well as Porsche's Cayenne and Bentley's Bentayga. But Audi CTO Peter Mertens confirms Audi and Porsche engineers are working on an all-new bespoke BEV architecture known as PPE. This platform, which will be ready in the early 2020s, replaces the convergence platform used for the e-trons, as well as Porsche's J1 platform.
Why the change? "You give up too much potential if you try to build a platform that does everything," Mertens says. "It's too expensive, too heavy, and it has proportions that do not fit either BEVs or vehicles with internal combustion and hybrid powertrains."
Audi is the engineering lead on two of the PPE platforms, while Porsche will have responsibility for one. All three variants will incorporate technology modules developed for J1. The first BEV Audi scheduled to come off PPE will be an A6-sized car. For Porsche, PPE enables it to build a high-floor electric SUV, not possible with the low-slung J1, which has been optimized for sporty on-road dynamics.
VOLVO
Geely-owned Volvo has reinvented its Polestar performance brand as one dedicated to BEVs, though its first car will be a plug-in hybrid. Polestar's first pure electric vehicle, the Polestar 2, is aimed squarely at Tesla's Model 3 and will make its public debut the second half of 2019, with production ramping up in 2020.
Built on a convergence platform based on the CMA architecture that underpins the new XC40, the Polestar 2 will look a lot like the Volvo 40.2 concept shown in 2016, and it features a glamorous interior that makes the Model 3's cabin look cheap and dull. Volvo sources say top-end Polestar 2 models will offer similar range and performance to Model 3—up to 300 miles between charges and 0-60 mph in about 6.0 seconds. Prices will start from about $45,000.
In 2022 the Polestar 2 will be joined by the Polestar 3, a rakish SUV built on a bespoke BEV version of SPA2 platform that will underpin the next generation of 60- and 90-series Volvo models. The Polestar 3 is big, about the size of an Audi Q7 but much roomier inside. Top versions will be all-wheel drive, with two motors at the rear and one driving the front wheels, and have a bigger battery pack than the largest currently offered by Tesla.
Source: Motor Trend
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